There were
many reactions after my post on the consequences of a PQ government on the
total area absorbed in a given year in the Montréal downtown district.
Obviously, economic cycles affect the real estate market and we cannot accuse
the PQ of causing them. What is more, the PQ, thanks to their subsidy programs,
did create jobs downtown, in multimedia and information technologies… jobs that
kept on being created after the liberal government election in 2003.
As of today,
we notice that the market is in wait-and-see mode; it has been this way since
the announcement of the September 4th election. Furthermore, I am
already hearing about rumors of international companies cancelling real estate
transactions. Someone has to explain them that this minority government has its
hands and feet bound.
To give some
depth to my August analysis, I decided to compare Toronto and Montréal annual
absorption numbers. Clearly, the two markets do not share the same size, but
doing this parallel is interesting as the business climate should be about the
same in both metropolises. Without data prior to 1992, we can only look at the
period between 1995 and 2003.
The effect of
the 1995 referendum is very clear. That year, the Montréal market froze. The
upturn that followed has been really slow in Montréal, while the Toronto market
was flying.
To ensure
that the market stay on its current trajectory (vacancy rate downtown is at its floor
rate, close to 5%: therefore, we should see some new towers in the Montréal
skyline in the medium term), the elected PQ government has to stay away from an
independence debate. The effects of the 2008 crisis are still felt, the
Canadian economy is relatively healthy but scaring away investors and foreign
companies will not help us to stay on a sustainable growth trajectory.